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Gallup Not Optimistic on Jobs

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Gallup Not Optimistic on Jobs

Post by Phillymg on Tue Apr 19, 2011 5:36 pm

The Gallup corporation twice a month releases unemployment rate numbers based on its own survey of 50,000 households. Because Gallup uses NON-Seasonally Adjusted data (the fed govt uses seasonally adjusted data) its numbers tend to fluctuate more than the govt's & tend to be higher than the govt's. (Tho Gallup's figures are not always higher than the govt's--for example in Dec. 2010 the govt's U3 rate was 9.8 but Gallup's U3 rate was only 8.8.) Nevertheless Gallup's numbers provide an important alternative look at the jobs situation.

Gallup's unemployment measure shows the jobs improvement of the past year to be modest at best--particularly given the rate at which jobs disappeared during the recession. There has been no improvement in Gallup's unemployment measure since mid-January and even the government's seasonally adjusted reports show that the U.S. unemployment rate declined relatively modestly, from 9.0% in January to 8.8% in March. In addition, unemployment according to Gallup has improved by less than one full percentage point over the past year. Further, underemployment has deteriorated since mid-January and shows an even more modest year-over-year improvement. In essence, the declines in Gallup's U.S. unemployment rate this year are running about two weeks ahead of the declines from last year. By May 1, 2010, Gallup's unemployment measure was down to 9.6% -- right where it now stands, two weeks earlier in 2011. In turn, this suggests the recent modest improvement in the jobs situation is due, at least in part, to seasonal hiring trends coming from more jobs activity at this time of year. Gallup's economic data also show consumer optimism down sharply and spending no better than it was a year ago. Barring a major change in this economic environment, it seems likely that business owners' optimism and employers' hiring intentions will also deteriorate in the months ahead, creating an even more challenging jobs situation.

Even if the fed govt's U3 & U6 rates for April go down a bit when released on May 6th.....expectations are that the rates will climb higher this summer.

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Re: Gallup Not Optimistic on Jobs

Post by mrgolf on Wed Apr 20, 2011 1:28 pm

Question. If one survey is seasonably adjusted and the other isn't aren't we comparing apples to oranges in a way?
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Re: Gallup Not Optimistic on Jobs

Post by unemployed2long/1208 on Wed Apr 20, 2011 1:52 pm

With an election year looming the truth will be a thing of the past!
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Re: Gallup Not Optimistic on Jobs

Post by stilllooking on Thu Apr 21, 2011 10:50 am

I am no longer optimistic either, they keep saying there are more jobs but I'm just not seeing it.
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