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The Beltway Bubble And Unemployment

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The Beltway Bubble And Unemployment

Post by Quiethawk on Fri Mar 04, 2011 3:04 pm

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Re: The Beltway Bubble And Unemployment

Post by Jen on Sat Mar 05, 2011 2:24 pm

" Along the way, Hayes points out the unemployment rate among Americans
with "four-year college degrees" is 4.2 percent, and the unemployment
rate in the DC-Arlington-Alexandria area is a mere 5.7 percent.

I would bet that the unemployment rate of 4.2% for college graduates is actually not representative of very many of the unemployed graduates. I am guessing that all of the people that have graduated from 2007 and on that still can't find any jobs are not counted because they were never in the workforce to begin with so, you can't be unemployed if you never were employed. I've just heard way too much on the news for these past 4 years about the fact that hardly any of the new graduates are able to find work to believe that now all of sudden they all found jobs.
Also, a lot of the people with degrees that got laid off in the beginning of the recession and still can't find any jobs are probably lumped into the "discouraged workers" category.


What these two numbers add up to is a governing elite that is profoundly
alienated from the lived experiences of the millions of Americans who
are barely surviving the ravages of the Great Recession. As much as the
pernicious influence of big money and the plutocrats' pseudo-obsession
with budget deficits, it is this social distance between decision-makers
and citizens that explains the almost surreal detachment of the current
Washington political conversation from the economic realities
working-class, middle-class and poor people face.


I do definitely agree with all of the points he is making in the article though.
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Re: The Beltway Bubble And Unemployment

Post by Phillymg on Sat Mar 05, 2011 2:58 pm

Jen wrote:" Along the way, Hayes points out the unemployment rate among Americans
with "four-year college degrees" is 4.2 percent, and the unemployment
rate in the DC-Arlington-Alexandria area is a mere 5.7 percent.

I would bet that the unemployment rate of 4.2% for college graduates is actually not representative of very many of the unemployed graduates. I am guessing that all of the people that have graduated from 2007 and on that still can't find any jobs are not counted because they were never in the workforce to begin with so, you can't be unemployed if you never were employed.
The 4.2% rate is based on the 60,000-household Survey so *yes* those who haven't begun to work yet *are* counted. The survey includes anyone from age 16 on up & asks whether or not they are working, if working is it f/t or p/t, & so forth.

Tho I also agree with the author on his overall points.....he's off in left field about the 4.2% rate since before the Recession the college-grad job rate was under 2.0%.

Also it went up to 4.3% yesterday.....

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t04.htm


Last edited by Phillymg on Sat Mar 05, 2011 3:03 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: The Beltway Bubble And Unemployment

Post by Jen on Sat Mar 05, 2011 3:01 pm

Phillymg wrote:
Jen wrote:" Along the way, Hayes points out the unemployment rate among Americans
with "four-year college degrees" is 4.2 percent, and the unemployment
rate in the DC-Arlington-Alexandria area is a mere 5.7 percent.

I would bet that the unemployment rate of 4.2% for college graduates is actually not representative of very many of the unemployed graduates. I am guessing that all of the people that have graduated from 2007 and on that still can't find any jobs are not counted because they were never in the workforce to begin with so, you can't be unemployed if you never were employed.
The 4.2% rate is based on the 60,000-household Survey so *yes* those who haven't begun to work yet *are* counted. The survey includes anyone from age 16 on up & asks whether or not they are working, if working is it f/t or p/t, & so forth.

Tho I also agree with the author on his overall points.....he's off in left field about the 4.2% rate since before the Recession the college-grad job rate was under 2.0%.

Also didn't it go up to 5.0% yesterday?
Do they ask them in the survey if they were working before?
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Re: The Beltway Bubble And Unemployment

Post by Phillymg on Sat Mar 05, 2011 3:06 pm

The BLS already knows if someone was working before since it basically uses the same 60,000 households year to year. They do ask people who are working p/t if it was because their hours were cut. I've never found the full list of questions on the Household Survey but I'll look.

Here's yesterday's report--

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

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Re: The Beltway Bubble And Unemployment

Post by Phillymg on Sat Mar 05, 2011 3:08 pm

The *biggest* problem with the Household Survey is that it completely omits the homeless. When someone becomes homeless (as many 99ers have) they 'drop off' of the survey. When an entire household becomes homeless it gets replaced by a new household that isn't homeless.

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Re: The Beltway Bubble And Unemployment

Post by JaneWI on Sat Mar 05, 2011 5:47 pm

Phillymg wrote:The *biggest* problem with the Household Survey is that it completely omits the homeless. When someone becomes homeless (as many 99ers have) they 'drop off' of the survey. When an entire household becomes homeless it gets replaced by a new household that isn't homeless.

Very good point and it's almost impossible to count the number of homeless people in this country.
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