States UE Rates Mar. 2011

I don't understand why H.R. 589 hasn't been passed by now? The unemployed rates are very high. I wonder if Congress and the president look at the numbers monthly or maybe they don't care.

Btw the states' ue rates always come out a few weeks after the national U3 rate is released. Therefore after the national rate has fallen (recently to 8.8%) the states' rates reported later that month tend to fall as well. Every state formulates its own ue rate according to its own rules. Gigi is correct.....two-thirds of the states have a ue rate that is above 7.2%. In the past temporary emergency unemployment compensation has *always* been extended when the national ue rate was above 7.2%. It's a sad aberration that Congress refuses to pass (or even vote on) HR589.

Does anyone have the UE rates for the past 2+ years? I'd like to see that in a column format....

What this and the Gallup thread tell me is that apparently nobody is using correct methodology to measure this.

The Labor Department said Tuesday that the unemployment rate dropped in 34 states in March. That's the largest number of states to record a decline since June. The rate rose in seven states and was unchanged in nine and Washington, D.C.

Employers hired more workers in 38 states. A government survey of employer payrolls found only 12 states plus Washington, D.C. lost jobs last month, the fewest since October.

Nationally, the unemployment rate fell in March to a two-year low of 8.8 percent, and private employers added more than 200,000 jobs for the second consecutive month. That's the largest two-month hiring total in four years.

Texas added 37,200 net jobs in March, the most of any state. It was followed by Missouri and Florida, both of which reported strong gains. California lost 11,600 net jobs _ the most of any state. Connecticut, Louisiana, Maryland and Maine all had large job losses, too.

New Mexico reported the biggest monthly drop in unemployment among all state, falling from 8.7 percent in February to 8.1 percent in March. Florida, Oklahoma, Indiana, Missouri and Ohio posted the next biggest monthly declines.

The Midwest is faring particularly well, said Steve Cochrane, a regional economist at Moody's Analytics. The region has generated more jobs in the past three months than any of the other three regions. A rebound in manufacturing has spurred hiring in professional services such as accounting, advertising and legal services. New weekly applications for unemployment benefits have fallen to pre-recession levels, Cochrane said, the first region where that has happened.

As a result, the unemployment rate in the Midwest dropped from 8.4 percent to 8.3 percent last month. That's just above the Northeast's 8.2 percent unemployment rate _ the best among the four regions. The West had the highest unemployment for any region in March, at 10.7 percent, followed by the South at 9.0 percent

Nevada again had the highest unemployment rate of any state, although it fell from 13.6 percent to 13.2 percent in March. California, at 12 percent, was second, followed by Florida (11.1 percent) and Rhode Island (11 percent).

Florida's unemployment rate has come down slightly from the 11.3 percent rate recorded a year ago. That's the state's first year-over-year decline since November 2006. Some of the drop is because many people who are unemployed have given up looking for work. People without jobs who aren't looking aren't counted as unemployed.

"We're still on the cusp of recovery in the job market," said Sean Snaith, an economics professor at the University of Central Florida.

The Sunshine State has added jobs in health care and in its signature industry _ tourism. Snaith said restaurants, hotels and theme parks are adding workers. A new Harry Potter theme park at Universal Studios' Orlando resort has been popular, he said.

North Dakota had the nation's lowest unemployment rate at 3.6 percent. It was followed by Nebraska at 4.2 percent and South Dakota at 4.9 percent.

http://www.newser.com/article/d9mmuapo1/unemployment-rate-falls-in-34-states-rises-in-only-7-as-hiring-picks-up.html

Mobs wrote:Does anyone have the UE rates for the past 2+ years? I'd like to see that in a column format....

Mobs--do you mean the states' ue rates?? Sorry I haven't seen any charts like that.

For the fed govt's Seasonally Adjusted U3 & U6 rates.....the 'Portal Seven' site has useful charts......

Back to 1994 for U6 & U3--

http://portalseven.com/employment/unemployment_rate_u6.jsp?fromYear=1994&toYear=2011

http://portalseven.com/employment/unemployment_rate.jsp?fromYear=1994&toYear=2011

Back to 1948 for U3--

http://portalseven.com/employment/unemployment_rate.jsp?fromYear=1948&toYear=2011

As we can see from that 1948-2011 U3 chart.....there's only been *one* other unemployment crisis this bad since they started keeping records.....in 1981-1984.

Gallup today released charts of its NON-Seasonally Adjusted U3 & U6 back to Jan. 2010--

http://www.gallup.com/poll/147179/Gallup-Finds-Unemployment-Down-Mid-April.aspx?utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=syndication&utm_content=morelink&utm_term=Underemployment

I'm sure Gallup has charts that go back further but I don't know where to find them.

The rate went up in my state, again.

Mobs wrote:Does anyone have the UE rates for the past 2+ years? I'd like to see that in a column format....

Mobs, the NELP website has the rates going back two years

Sovereign wrote:What this and the Gallup thread tell me is that apparently nobody is using correct methodology to measure this.

The BLS website states that its methods have drawbacks which is why it does both a household survey & an employers survey.

The reason Gallup does its own household survey & data is to provide an alternative to the BLS household survey/data.

The reason ADP does its own employers NonFarm Payrolls survey & data is to provide an alternative to the BLS employers survey/data. ADP's results are always quite a bit higher than the govt's result. Gallup also does an employers survey/data--

http://www.gallup.com/poll/146783/Gallup-Job-Creation-Index-Sees-Best-Week-Sept-2008.aspx

These data are all estimates. Sorry Sovereign don't mean to sound sarcastic but do you have a suggestion for a 'correct methodology'??

Need2Bworking wrote:The rate went up in my state, again.

Mine too.

nuttin2lose wrote:

Need2Bworking wrote:The rate went up in my state, again.

Mine too.

mine three

Can we merge this with the other thread about the states' rates please.....

Phillymg wrote:Can we merge this with the other thread about the states' rates please.....

I was thinking the same thing. Wish I knew how to do it. I bet N2B knows.

mrgolf wrote:

nuttin2lose wrote:

Need2Bworking wrote:The rate went up in my state, again.

Mine too.

mine three

I take it back. CA. fell from 12.1 to 12.0

Need2Bworking wrote:

Mobs wrote:Does anyone have the UE rates for the past 2+ years? I'd like to see that in a column format....

Mobs, the NELP website has the rates going back two years

N2BW--Do you have the link......looked on the NELP site & couldn't find it.

mrgolf wrote:

Phillymg wrote:Can we merge this with the other thread about the states' rates please.....

I was thinking the same thing. Wish I knew how to do it. I bet N2B knows.

Yes if N2BW could merge my thread into your thread that's be great.....
https://dawu.forumotion.com/t1897-states-ue-rates-mar-2011#38177

Topics merged

Phillymg wrote:

Sovereign wrote:What this and the Gallup thread tell me is that apparently nobody is using correct methodology to measure this.

The BLS website states that its methods have drawbacks which is why it does both a household survey & an employers survey.

The reason Gallup does its own household survey & data is to provide an alternative to the BLS household survey/data.

The reason ADP does its own employers NonFarm Payrolls survey & data is to provide an alternative to the BLS employers survey/data. ADP's results are always quite a bit higher than the govt's result. Gallup also does an employers survey/data--

http://www.gallup.com/poll/146783/Gallup-Job-Creation-Index-Sees-Best-Week-Sept-2008.aspx

These data are all estimates. Sorry Sovereign don't mean to sound sarcastic but do you have a suggestion for a 'correct methodology'??

Absolutely. The IRS has a complete database of tax returns and taxpayers. Collate the data. How many social security numbers reported income last year? How much? Year-to-date payroll info goes to the IRS every month as taxes are collected. How many social security numbers stopped reporting income? When did that happen? How many social security numbers showed a sudden decrease in income? When did this happen and by how much? Everything you need to get employment, unemployment, and underemployment is right there in their foul vampiric hands. The only data not collected monthly is 1099, but that can still be collated yearly. Have the IRS track it by social security numbers, feed--or sell, more likely--the data to the BLS. Correct methodology, 100% sample rate. All computerized, can be done in realtime.

Need2Bworking wrote:Topics merged

Thanks

Sovereign wrote:
Absolutely. The IRS has a complete database of tax returns and taxpayers. Collate the data. How many social security numbers reported income last year? How much? Year-to-date payroll info goes to the IRS every month as taxes are collected. How many social security numbers stopped reporting income? When did that happen? How many social security numbers showed a sudden decrease in income? When did this happen and by how much? Everything you need to get employment, unemployment, and underemployment is right there in their foul vampiric hands. The only data not collected monthly is 1099, but that can still be collated yearly. Have the IRS track it by social security numbers, feed--or sell, more likely--the data to the BLS. Correct methodology, 100% sample rate. All computerized, can be done in realtime.

Makes sense to me.

Seriously, this is a rare case where the IRS could do something useful instead of predatory, just this once. Won't happen, of course, because it produces hard data that can't be massaged or spun in the media. Imagine, actual data!