Jobless claims drop to lowest in 3 years/UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT March 3, 2011

jj wrote:UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT
March 3, 2011


http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/eta20110267.htm

Jobless claims drop to lowest in 3 years
And productivity's growth pace slowed, implying future job growth
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41885150/ns/business-stocks_and_economy/

WASHINGTON — Jobless claims tumbled to a
nearly three-year low last week and signs grew that companies have
squeezed every drop of toil out of their workers, offering hope that the
pace of hiring will soon improve.
The government said Thursday applications for unemployment benefits
fell by 20,000 to a seasonally adjusted 368,000. It was the third
decline in the last four weeks. Applications are now at their lowest
level since late May 2008.
The four-week average for applications, a less volatile figure, fell
last week to 388,500. That's the lowest level since July 2008, the last
time the four-week average was below 400,000.

I hope that this really is a good sign but, I have my doubts.

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT
March 3, 2011


http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/eta20110267.htm

Jen wrote:I hope that this really is a good sign but, I have my doubts.

X2 I'm being cautiously optimistic.

Praying this is accurate.........

Need2Bworking wrote:Praying this is accurate.........

I'm just afraid that it doesn't really mean that hiring is around the corner like they say it does. It is still a large number of people that got laid off last week and it could be that it's lower than before only because there just aren't as many people to lay off left.

jj wrote:UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT
March 3, 2011


http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/eta20110267.htm

Thanks for the report!
I merged these two because I think we need to see this official report while talking about this.

http://money.cnn.com/2011/03/03/news/economy/initial_claims/index.htm


Still, Cook added that while the job market is headed in the right
direction, it's recovering only at a snail's pace, with job creation at
sluggish levels. "We're still not out of the woods," he said.
"The housing sector is in really rough shape, and even though
corporations have a lot of cash on their balance sheets, they're not
ready to let it go. Those two factors make it really difficult to add
jobs."

*THIS* is the number that is lowered by the existence of the 99ers as well as temp/p-t workers. The exhaustees & others who don't qualify for a New Claim (= Initial Claim) simply 'drop off' the system. To qualify for a New Claim a person has to have worked & made a certain amount. Ever since individuals began exhausting their UI a little over a year ago.....the Initial Claims figures have been kept artificially low precisely because the 99ers and others do not qualify for New Claims. For the past few months the US has been in the midst of *The Perfect Storm of 99ers*--those laid off between Oct. 2008 & Apr. 2009 who have been unable to find work or only able to find temp/p-t work. Therefore of course the New Claims numbers are down & will continue to go down till our nation starts creating jobs again.

Phillymg wrote:*THIS* is the number that is lowered by the existence of the 99ers as well as temp/p-t workers. The exhaustees & others who don't qualify for a New Claim (= Initial Claim) simply 'drop off' the system. To qualify for a New Claim a person has to have worked & made a certain amount. Ever since individuals began exhausting their UI a little over a year ago.....the Initial Claims figures have been kept artificially low precisely because the 99ers and others do not qualify for New Claims. For the past few months the US has been in the midst of *The Perfect Storm of 99ers*--those laid off between Oct. 2008 & Apr. 2009 who have been unable to find work or only able to find temp/p-t work. Therefore of course the New Claims numbers are down & will continue to go down till our nation starts creating jobs again.

I don't see how new claims would have anything to do with 99ers. You would have to be newly unemployed to file a new claim.

I wonder how many people are counted as being in the workforce now as computer to let's say, two or three years ago.

JaneWI wrote:I wonder how many people are counted as being in the workforce now as computer to let's say, two or three years ago.

It's way, way, way less. I saw it in an article last month when the monthly jobs report came out.

Jen wrote:

JaneWI wrote:I wonder how many people are counted as being in the workforce now as computer to let's say, two or three years ago.

It's way, way, way less. I saw it in an article last month when the monthly jobs report came out.

Decreasing the number of people in the workforce will by default make the unemployment rate go down. If I wasn't sneezing so much I would do a bit of research. Maybe in the next day or two.

Jen wrote:

Phillymg wrote:*THIS* is the number that is lowered by the existence of the 99ers as well as temp/p-t workers. The exhaustees & others who don't qualify for a New Claim (= Initial Claim) simply 'drop off' the system. To qualify for a New Claim a person has to have worked & made a certain amount. Ever since individuals began exhausting their UI a little over a year ago.....the Initial Claims figures have been kept artificially low precisely because the 99ers and others do not qualify for New Claims. For the past few months the US has been in the midst of *The Perfect Storm of 99ers*--those laid off between Oct. 2008 & Apr. 2009 who have been unable to find work or only able to find temp/p-t work. Therefore of course the New Claims numbers are down & will continue to go down till our nation starts creating jobs again.

I don't see how new claims would have anything to do with 99ers. You would have to be newly unemployed to file a new claim.

Each year when a claimant's BYE arrives their state tries to open a new Initial Claim on them.

If a person works during the time when they are eligible for UI/EUC/EB then when their BYE comes they may qualify for a new Initial Claim.

That's what the Fix in the HR4213 bill was for.....to help some claimants stay on EUC by deferring their new Initial Claim.

But if they haven't worked or haven't earned enough & they run out of EUC/EB.....they have no hope of opening a new Initial Claim.

That's why the continued longterm existence of exhaustees & p/t-temp workers causes the Initial Claims numbers to be lower. When unemployment & underemployment persist for years on end.....the Initial UI Claims go down.

JaneWI wrote:

Jen wrote:

JaneWI wrote:I wonder how many people are counted as being in the workforce now as computer to let's say, two or three years ago.

It's way, way, way less. I saw it in an article last month when the monthly jobs report came out.

Decreasing the number of people in the workforce will by default make the unemployment rate go down. If I wasn't sneezing so much I would do a bit of research. Maybe in the next day or two.

Correct. Tho that issue is related to the U3/U6 unemployment rates--not to the ## of people on UI/EUC/EB. The BLS Household Survey (which is different from UI Initial Claims) doesn't count Discouraged and Marginal workers who have stopped looking for work in the U3 rate. However the U6 rate *does* include those people & temp-p/t workers.

Here's a good article Tazzy found that explains about who some of the Discouraged workers are--college students, housewives, etc.

http://gazettextra.com/news/2011/feb/27/official-numbers-dont-reflect-all-unemployed/

Most exhaustees who have not yet found work are continuing to look for work. Currently there are about 4 million exhaustees of which around 1.4 million have not yet found work. It's highly likely that all 1.4 million of them continue to seek work & are not what are called Discouraged Workers.

U3 & U6 for Feb. 2011 come out tomorrow. It's curious we haven't heard any estimates from the 'experts' as to what the U3 rate will be.

Phillymg, thank you for posting the information. The methods used to count the workforce, unemployed and employed can be confusing at times. I did a little research on this a few years ago because I was curious and don't remember a lot of that now.

Phillymg wrote:U3 & U6 for Feb. 2011 come out tomorrow. It's curious we haven't heard any estimates from the 'experts' as to what the U3 rate will be.

I saw this estimate yesterday.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-02/u-s-companies-added-more-than-estimated-217-000-jobs-last-month-adp-says.html
Companies added 200,000 jobs in
February, while unemployment rose to 9.1 percent, economists
project a Labor Department report to show in two days.